Wednesday, June 15, 2011

Bubble Is a Process

Currently there is a debate ongoing at The Economist. The topic is whether we are in a new tech bubble. Although I couldn't agree with the defender of the motion that we are in a bubble, I agree with him that a bubble is a process, not an event. Mr. Steve Blank, the defender, stated that a bubble has four phases: stealth, awareness, mania and blow-off. Certainly the entire society benefits from the first two phases. Arguably investors benefit from the first three phases. So a bubble is not always a bad thing, if investors know when to exit. But that is a big if.

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