Thursday, August 4, 2011

Wait for QE3 or a Exhaustion Round Bottom

The stock market is like a rubber band. When stretched, it either snap back or is broken. I think it's broken today though many think today is capitulation. Hopefully I'm wrong.

One piece of news concerned me is European banks collapsed today and European Central Bank restarted its bound buying program. I noticed that the TED spread and the OIS-Libor spread both widened significantly lately, which usually means there is a major credit risk down the road. European banks could be it and as far as I know it isn't covered in the media and is beyond imagination of most investors --- necessary conditions for a perfect storm.

Many investors are still hoping for QE3 that, they think, will save the world. But if there is a major risk down the road, the Fed will be careful to save its few bullets, if not the last one. It may take a couple more crashes like today before the Fed jump in. Investors want to act after, not before, the Fed, because the market drops fast, very fast.

Barring QE3, there isn't anything I can imagine that will turn over the economy. Then investors have to be patient to wait for an organic recovery which will be signaled by an exhaustion round bottom. Count years, not days, for this.

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