Friday, September 23, 2011
Fundamentally Bullish, Sentimentally Bearish
Fundamentally now it is much better than 2008: there is enough liquidity in the financial system, and GDP is still growing. Even economists keep lowering their estimates on GDP, they still project growth. The problem is, the market is dominated by bearish sentiment. Many investors simply leave the market and stay on the sidelines. The only players in the market now are computer-driven momentum-chasing hedge funds. In the past two months, quant funds are the best performers in the hedge fund industry. If investors are indifferent and stay on the sidelines, nobody will stop the bearish momentum and we'll see new lows. Thus fundamentally I'm bullish, but sentimentally I'm bearish. I'll just stay with my strategy and enjoy the roller coaster.